Regulations

India's overarching framework for scaling solar capacity. The original 2010 target of 20 GW by 2022 was revised to 100 GW (then 280+ GW solar within the 500 GW non-fossil 2030 target).

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

VGF

Key facts

·500 GW non-fossil installed capacity target by 2030
·Solar capacity grew from <1 GW (2010) to ~90 GW today
·Drove ALMM, PLI, RPO, ISTS waiver and PM Surya Ghar as supporting frameworks

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Adani Green Energy	Utility-scale capacity awards	Confirmed
NTPC Green Energy	PSU capacity allocation	Confirmed
Tata Power	Integrated solar deployment	Confirmed

PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana

MNRE · launched 2024-02-13

Source

Targets 1 crore rooftop solar installations for households by FY27 with up to 300 units of free electricity per month. Central financial assistance of ~₹30k–₹78k per household.

Outlay

₹75.02K Cr

Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Capex Subsidy

Key facts

·₹75,021 crore outlay through FY27
·Target: 1 crore households rooftop solar
·Upfront subsidy up to ₹78,000 for 3 kW system
·Loan up to ₹2 lakh from PSU banks at concessional rates

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Tata Power	Largest rooftop EPC franchise	Confirmed
Servotech Renewable Power System	Rooftop inverter and BoS supply	Likely
Waaree Energies	Rooftop module supply	Confirmed
Premier Energies	Rooftop cell + module supply	Likely
Polycab India	Solar cable demand	Confirmed
Genus Power	Net-meter rollouts	Confirmed

Solar PLI (High-Efficiency PV Modules)

MNRE · launched 2021-04-28

Source

Production-Linked Incentive for high-efficiency solar PV modules across two tranches. Designed to incentivise vertical integration up to polysilicon.

Outlay

₹24.00K Cr

Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

PLI

Key facts

·Tranche I outlay ₹4,500 crore — 8,737 MW fully integrated awarded
·Tranche II outlay ₹19,500 crore — multiple integrated GW awards
·Incentive linked to sales, efficiency and domestic value addition

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Waaree Energies	Tranche II awardee	Confirmed
Premier Energies	Tranche II awardee	Confirmed
Adani Enterprises	Integrated polysilicon-to-module awardee	Confirmed
Websol Energy System	Cell tranche awardee	Likely

ALMM-I (Modules) · Active

MNRE · launched 2021-03-10

Source

First layer of the ALMM cascade. Only listed solar PV modules eligible for government projects and government-supported solar projects. Quality + India-preference gatekeeper. Module assembly is the domestic value-add in this era (FY22–FY25).

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Trade Protection

Key facts

·Effective March 2021 onwards
·Ensures quality and India-preference for all government project module procurement
·Era 1 (FY22–FY25): BCD + ALMM-I protect module assembly margins

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Waaree Energies	Listed module supply for government tenders	Confirmed
Premier Energies	Listed module supply	Confirmed
Tata Power	Module supply via Tata Power Solar	Confirmed
Adani Enterprises	Mundra module supply	Confirmed
Solex Energy	Listed module supply	Confirmed

ALMM-II (Cells) · Effective June 2026

MNRE · launched 2026-06-01

Source

Second layer of the ALMM cascade. Mandatory domestically manufactured cells for government project tenders issued post-Aug 2025 and for C&I projects. Drives immediate spike in domestic cell demand from C&I segment and cell tightness through FY28. DCR module demand expected to jump from 18 GW (FY26) to 55 GW (FY28).

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Trade Protection

Key facts

·Effective from 1 June 2026 for government tenders issued post Aug'25
·Applies to all C&I projects
·~30 GW ALMM-II listed cell capacity across 12 players; FY26E production ~19 GW at 66% utilisation
·Integrated cell + module players capture margin premium · Era 2 (FY25–FY28)

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Waaree Energies	ALMM-II cell listing 5,251 MW; expansion to 15.4 GW by FY27	Confirmed
Premier Energies	ALMM-II cell listing 3,283 MW; expansion to 10.4 GW by FY28	Confirmed
Tata Power	ALMM-II cell listing 4,813 MW (76% utilisation)	Confirmed
Adani Enterprises	ALMM-II cell listing 4,237 MW (Mundra Solar)	Confirmed
Websol Energy System	ALMM-II cell listing 1,202 MW	Confirmed

ALMM-III (Wafers) · Effective June 2028

MNRE · launched 2028-06-01

Source

Third layer of the ALMM cascade. Restricts use of imported wafers, mandating domestic wafer manufacturing. Applicable when >3 manufacturing units operate independently with aggregate capacity >15 GW. Demand from FY29 onwards. India currently has only ~5 GW of operational wafer/ingot capacity (Adani + First Solar) versus FY29E demand of ~35 GW — the next major upstream bottleneck.

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Trade Protection

Key facts

·Effective from 1 June 2028
·Wafer/ingot lines require ₹650–700 Cr per GW capex
·FY29E demand 35 GW vs supply 25 GW; FY31E demand 70 GW vs supply 50 GW
·First-mover wins: 2–3 year scarcity premium and long-term contracts
·Era 3 (FY29–FY31): margin migrates upstream to wafers; few players will have capacity

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Adani Enterprises	Existing Mundra wafer capability; integration scaling	Likely
Waaree Energies	Wafer expansion required to retain Era-3 margin	Likely
Premier Energies	Wafer integration path needed	Possible

Basic Customs Duty (BCD)

Ministry of Finance · launched 2022-04-01

Source

40% Basic Customs Duty on imported solar PV modules and 27.5% on imported solar PV cells. Together with ALMM, this makes Chinese imports economically unviable for most domestic use-cases and protects domestic manufacturer margins.

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Trade Protection

Key facts

·40% BCD on imported solar PV modules
·27.5% BCD on imported solar PV cells
·Combined with ALMM and PLI, insulates domestic supply chain from China pricing floor
·Makes Chinese imports economically unviable for most domestic use-cases

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Waaree Energies	Module assembly margin protection	Confirmed
Premier Energies	Cell + module margin protection	Confirmed
Websol Energy System	Cell margin protection	Confirmed
Adani Enterprises	Integrated value-chain protection	Confirmed

PM-KUSUM

MNRE · launched 2019-03-08

Source

Three-component scheme for decentralized solar (Component A: 10,000 MW small ground-mounted; B: 17.5 lakh solar pumps; C: 10 lakh feeder solarization).

Outlay

₹34.42K Cr

Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Capex Subsidy

Key facts

·Component A: 10,000 MW small decentralised solar plants on farmland
·Component B: 17.5 lakh standalone solar pumps
·Component C: 10 lakh grid-connected pumps + feeder-level solar

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Refex Renewables & Infrastructure	Component A solar plants	Likely
Gensol Engineering	EPC for pumps and small plants	Likely
Servotech Renewable Power System	Pump systems and inverters	Possible

Renewable Purchase Obligation (RPO)

Ministry of Power · launched 2011-07-13

Source

Obligation on Discoms, open-access consumers and captive users to procure a minimum share of renewable energy, with separate solar, wind and hydro sub-targets.

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Mandate

Key facts

·RPO trajectory rising to ~43% by FY30 across renewable + storage categories
·Penalties for non-compliance enforced under Electricity Act
·Drives REC trading and green-tariff PPA demand

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Adani Green Energy	Bulk renewable PPA demand	Confirmed
NTPC Green Energy	PSU offtake demand	Confirmed
Indian Energy Exchange	REC + green-market volumes	Confirmed

Green Energy Open Access Rules

Ministry of Power · launched 2022-06-06

Source

Reduced minimum open-access transaction size to 100 kW, capped cross-subsidy surcharge increase, and standardised banking for green power across states.

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Regulatory Enabler

Key facts

·Minimum eligible OA load reduced to 100 kW
·Standardised banking with limits per state
·Enables corporate PPAs and ESG-led offtake

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
KPI Green Energy	C&I open-access growth	Confirmed
Oriana Power	C&I open-access growth	Confirmed
JSW Energy	Long-tenor C&I PPAs	Likely

ISTS Charges Waiver

Ministry of Power · launched 2016-07-13

Source

Waiver of inter-state transmission charges for renewable projects commissioned within specified deadlines, materially improving project IRR.

Outlay

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Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Transmission Charge Waiver

Key facts

·Improves project equity IRR by ~150–300 bps depending on distance
·Phased reduction post FY26 — eligibility window critical
·Major driver of intra-state vs inter-state project mix

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Adani Green Energy	Inter-state evacuation savings	Confirmed
NTPC Green Energy	Inter-state evacuation savings	Confirmed
JSW Energy	Inter-state RTC project benefit	Likely

National Green Hydrogen Mission

MNRE · launched 2023-01-04

Source

₹19,744 crore programme targeting 5 MMT/year of green hydrogen by 2030, anchored by SIGHT-A (electrolyser manufacturing) and SIGHT-B (green H2 production).

Outlay

₹19.74K Cr

Segments

Beneficiaries tracked

Incentive type

Electrolyser PLI

Key facts

·Target: 5 MMTPA green hydrogen by 2030
·SIGHT-A: 1.5 GW electrolyser manufacturing under PLI
·SIGHT-B: production-linked incentive on green H2 output

Beneficiary engine

Company	Benefit	Probability
Adani Enterprises	Integrated green-H2 stack	Likely
JSW Energy	Renewable supply + electrolyser interest	Likely
NTPC	Green H2 pilots and ammonia tenders	Likely

State solar policies

Capacity · pipeline · ALMM/RPO posture

State	Installed (MW)	Pipeline (MW)	ALMM/RPO	Notes
Gujarat	17,500	9,500	Strong	Largest module manufacturing hub; Khavda solar park; aggressive open access.
Rajasthan	22,000	12,500	Strong	Bhadla and Bikaner solar parks; lowest discovered tariffs.
Maharashtra	7,800	5,400	Moderate	Strong C&I and rooftop demand; MSEDCL leading hybrid procurement.
Tamil Nadu	9,500	4,600	Moderate	C&I corridor with declining net-metering generosity.
Karnataka	9,000	3,500	Moderate	Solar-wind hybrid corridor; Pavagada solar park.
Andhra Pradesh	5,500	7,000	Strong	RTC renewables; Anantapur Ultra Mega Park; pumped storage push.
Telangana	5,400	2,800	Moderate	Premier cell hub; aggressive industrial rooftop adoption.
Uttar Pradesh	2,900	7,500	Moderate	PM Surya Ghar leader; Bundelkhand solar mega-parks.
Madhya Pradesh	4,400	5,600	Moderate	Rewa, Agar, Shajapur solar parks; agri solar push.
Odisha	800	5,200	Light	Bidding ramp-up; storage-linked solar tenders.